“The insights of Daniel Daves, Kuhn and advice by Popper offer a possible solution: test models from the past 4 Assessment Reports using observations from our past but their future. Run them with observations made after their creation, not scenarios, so they produce predictions not projections — and compare them with observations from after their creation.”
I would like to see if this has already been done … but if not … it would be a great line of analysis.
by Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website.
Many factors have frozen the public policy debate on climate change, but none more important than the disinterest of both sides in tests that might provide better evidence — and perhaps restart the discussion. Even worse, too little thought has been given to the criteria for validating climate science theories (aka their paradigm) and the models build upon them.
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